19:29 Friday, July 01, 2022

Неочакваните събития, които могат да променят 2016г.

Динамиката на световните пазари не позволява особено акуратни прогнози. Глобалната икономика все още не се възстановява с очакваните темпове след кризата от 2008 година и е силно зависима от редица фактори, посочва списание “Икономист”.

От изданието изтъкват, че е възможно доларът да отслаби позициите си, вместо да ги заздрави. Има предположения, че Федералният резерв ще продължи с покачването на основната лихва и това ще даде на инвеститорите тласък за купуването на долари. Още повече, че Европейската и Японската централни банки задържат лихвата почти до нулата.

Но трябва да се има предвид, че доларът вече изкара един много силен, продължителен период. Период, в който може би дори са “зачислени” очакваните покачвания на лихвата. Така че е вероятно да се стигне до сериозна изненада и доларът да “застине” и дори да отслабне, въпреки качването на лихвата.

Икономиката винаги е била зависима от политическите събития, а новата година ще ни предложи доста интересни такива, особено в Съединените щати, където ще избират нов президент.

В началото на 2015 година инвеститорите очакваха династичен сблъсък между Джеб Буш и Хилари Клинтън за мястото на Барак Обама в Белия дом. По всичко личи обаче, че републиканският кандидат ще бъде Доналд Тръмп или Тед Круз. Първият говори за забрана за влизане на американска територия на мюсюлмани, вторият предлага плосък данък и монетарна система, вързана към златото.

Г-жа Клинтън може и да е фаворит в битката срещу който и да е от двамата републиканци, но тя не се ползва с особено доверие от голяма част от избирателите. Перспективата Тръмп или Круз да заемат президентския пост ще доведе до сериозна несигурност на пазарите. Тук отново се появява вероятността доларът да пострада.

Риск по политически причини ще има и за британската икономика. На Острова предстои референдум за напускане на Европейския съюз през 2016-та година. Прогнозите са, че британците ще гласуват за запазване на членството, но евроскептицизмът се засилва все повече и повече.

Ако Великобритания гласува за излизане от Евросъюза, това несъмнено ще доведе до колебания у чуждестранните инвеститори. Шотландските гласоподаватели са проевропейски настроени и евентуално напускане на общността, ще засили исканията за нов референдум за независимост на Шотландия.

В тази взривоопасна политически ситуация британският премиер Дейвид Камерън поема риск, който може да му коства поста. Предвид всичко това, може би е добра идея да продавате британските лири, ако разполагате с такива, пише “Икономист”.

Разбира се, може да има и положителни изненади на световните пазари. Развиващите се икономики, например, се готвят за добра година. Експерти от водещи институции посочват, че настоящият песимизъм е резонен, но след месеци на постоянен спад може би е дошло време за възход и по-добри дни за тези държави.

Разбира се, не всичко от описаното по-горе ще се случи. Но едно или две събития ще бъдат факт.

Filed in: Новини от UK, Новини от останалия свят, Политика, Световни финанси

46 Responses to “Неочакваните събития, които могат да променят 2016г.”

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